Asia was the first region to emerge from the Great Recession last year. It is also the first region where the incoming data justify a forecast upgrade this year according to US investment bank Morgan Stanley, which has boosted its 2010 GDP growth forecasts for Japan (by 1.4%), China (1%), India (0.5%), Malaysia (0.5%) and Thailand (0.3%). The bank now see Pan-Asia motoring along at a 7.4% pace (from 6.6% previously) and Asia excluding Japan (AxJ) at 8.8% (previously 8.2%). The main trigger for this upward revision was a stronger-than-expected surge in external trade around the turn of this year, which should also lead to stronger capex (capital expenditure) and, especially in India, a better outlook for domestic demand. The region will be responsible for 60% of global growth of 4.4% in 2010 and the world’s Emerging Markets will be responsible for 75% of growth.
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